Adspend prospects in Europe, the US and Japan

Several key European markets are predicted to weather the advertising recession better than the US or Japan, according to the latest European Advertising & Media Forecast, published by WARC.

The internet and outdoor (except in Japan) are both well placed to ride out the storm.

Overall, ad spending levels appear most stable in the Eurozone-12, with a flat forecast for 2009, at current prices, following on from expected negligible growth in the region in 2008.

In real terms (accounting for inflation), the situation is already far worse than is at first apparent in some markets. Spending is set to drop by 7% in Spain, following a predicted slump of just under 12% in 2008, and by 2.4% in France.

UK advertising revenues are also due to drop by 6.5% year-on-year for 2009 in real terms.

Marketing spend will also post a 1% decline in the US at current prices, and will be down by 2.5% in real terms, following an estimated fall of 4.6% over the course of 2008.

In terms of media, online will continue its upward trajectory across all markets, albeit at slower levels than previously forecast.

Growth will be highest in the Eurozone-12, at 20% year-on-year at current prices, while the medium will expand around 15% in the US and Japan, compared with just 9% in the UK.

It is possible that the current downturn will accelerate changes in the media mix, most notably the rise in advertisers’ use of digital screen media of all kinds, which were already underway before many economies hit the buffers.